Tokyo Governor Ishihara Critiques the U.S.-Japan Alliance

May 17, 2007

Speaker
Shintaro Ishihara, Governor of Tokyo

Presider
Sandra Endo, Political Reporter, NY1 News

The Honorable Shintaro Ishihara, recently elected to a third term as governor of Tokyo, shared his thoughts about the geopolitics of the U.S.-Japan relationship.

Governor Ishihara urged that the time is right to re-examine the U.S.-Japan alliance. The Cold War is gone; there is a new era, characterized not by multipolarity but by "nonpolarity," and this "means that there is going to be an explosion of fanatic religious powers," as witnessed in Iraq and Iran, and, correspondingly, "the so-called developed world will turn to reclusive tendencies, and they will withdraw into their own small circles."

In this context, the governor declared, "it is necessary for the United States to take a fresh look at the relative value of Japan to the U.S. and the world, as well as what Japan has to offer to the U.S. and to the world."

For one thing, Japan is not is a dependent state, it's not a "Puerto Rico to the U.S.," and this is something "both nations must recognize," he said.

I think the U.S. must give a due and dispassionate assessment regarding the power and potential Japan has as a nation. I think there are many ways to assess the country's power, or the power of the body politic: one is military strength, another is economic power, and a third is technology and engineering.

In terms of military strength, Japan has relied heavily, indeed too heavily, on the U.S. for its defense, Governor Ishihara said. But despite this, he stated, Japan's level of military training is "superb" and greatly surpasses that of China, with the Japanese air force spending five times as much time on training maneuvers as the Chinese air force.

In the economic arena, Japan's huge holdings of U.S. Treasuries represent an underused asset, in the governor's view. "An area like Siberia, which is very resource rich but a desolate place where nobody lives--there is a huge potential in developing Siberia," he remarked. "If that could be financed" by a new development fund, using a portion of Japan's holdings of U.S. Treasuries as collateral, "I think that it would produce a profit with a greater than 5 percent yield. Or, we could select India as a place where we could have a major development project utilizing such a fund."

Finally, in engineering and technology, which are the major source of the developments of our civilization, "there have been many missed opportunities for cooperation between Japan and the U.S.," Governor Ishihara said, citing as examples various ceramics and LCD technologies used in aircraft manufacturing.

"Half of the Boeing aircraft comes from Japanese suppliers," he continued. "The U.S. probably still has traumatic memories from the Pacific War, I don't know the reason, but somehow the U.S. government restrains or controls or doesn't like the development of the aircraft industry in Japan."

However, he said, "I think the U.S. is at last granting permission to Japan to develop its own aircraft, like the successor to the C-1 transport or the P-3C, the anti-submarine patrol aircraft," with mass production of the new anti-submarine plane set to begin within the current year.

"The U.S. should not be alarmed at Japan's technological prowess. I think it's time that we move into joint work and joint operations for developing better technology  together," urged the governor.

Peter F. Drucker said that no matter how good a country's technology is, if it is not rendered into a product, it is nothing but rock, and has no value. In his book he praises Japanese management for being willing to commercialize technology and states that, in that sense, Japanese management is more outstanding than American management, and I agree with that. The point is, I think, that both countries should recognize the strengths and differences in their respective technologies.

At the end of his lecture, Governor Ishihara said, "Talking about the U.S.-Japan relationship going forward, the most important question is how we recognize the presence of China and how we assess the presence of China, for both countries." What makes this so critical, he said, is the "dangerous economic situation" in China, where state-owned enterprises, which represent 60 percent of Chinese corporations, "are totally dysfunctional, and cannot manage their own affairs. The SOE sector is in complete shambles; state-owned enterprises do not have any ability to repay their debts."

When the inevitable happens, and the bubble bursts, the regime in China will do what dictators generally do when their economies fail, he said. "In order to avert criticism from the masses, they will want to engage in military adventurism," perhaps in Taiwan, perhaps in the Senkaku Islands.

"This is the kind of thing that you should be thinking  about very seriously," said Governor Ishihara. "I think that the U.S. should be seriously questioning whether there is real value in defending Japan." The U.S. must be explicitly clear in its answer to this question. If the answer is no, then Japan will make up its own mind to defend itself, and our efforts to defend ourselves may lead to the nuclear armament that everyone is concerned about.

"Dr. Kissinger always asks me, 'When will Japan possess nuclear arms?' And I always find this question unwelcome, but nevertheless he always asks me that. Anyway, considering those possibilities, I think that it is time for both Japan and the U.S. to rethink the presence of China. At the same time, we should also review and reconstruct the U.S.-Japan relationship," Governor Ishihara concluded.

Presider Sandra Endo of NY1 asked:

Before we get to the Q&A with the audience, what is your answer to Dr. Kissinger's question?

"Only God knows, and only the U.S. knows, that's my answer," Governor Ishihara replied.

Has Prime Minister Abe done enough to forge a stronger U.S.-Japan relationship, and what could Japan do to strengthen that relationship?

"We must be able to say no--that's the answer," responded the governor. The U.S. presents Japan with a list of requests for legislative changes on an annual basis, but oddly enough, there's no corresponding submission from Japan, he said, and a number of these changes have not been to Japan's benefit.

One example is changes in the laws governing large-scale retail stores: "Now, the traditional Japanese shopping street," a collection of small local shops, "is completely ruined," he commented.

Do you think Prime Minister Abe has the strength and would say no?

"Depending upon the case, he could have that power," responded Governor Ishihara.

How about you, perhaps, if you were prime minister?

"Of course, of course. That's the reason why I wrote that book," exclaimed the governor. "I am too old to be prime minister now," he added.

So do you think we will see a Prime Minister Ishihara in your son?

The governor answered, "Well, some people say he's got potential."

Q&A with the audience followed:

What is your reaction to Prime Minister Abe's recent comments that the Japanese government was not involved in procuring comfort women during World War II?

"During wartime, there is no evidence that military authority actually procured such women for that purpose. But I do recognize that there were some businesses" that did so, replied the governor.

In October, after the North Korean nuclear tests, President Bush said that the U.S. intends to defend both Japan and Korea as allies of the U.S. Given this, could you discuss further your comments on Japanese military armament?

"I am not here to say whether Japan should possess  nuclear arms or not," said Governor Ishihara. "The important question is that there is a choice that has to be made, and the U.S. side should make its position very clear as to whether Japan is worth protecting under the U.S.-Japan security treaty."
 "But to pose the question from a different angle, I want to ask another question. If there should be a total war between the U.S. and China, do you think the U.S. would be able to win?" he continued.
 "Let me remind you of a remark made very recently by second in command on the joint chiefs of staff of the Chinese military. He said that even if they lost half their land mass, they would absolutely win [a war]. And he couldn't care less if China went into a nuclear war."
 This, said the governor, is "the militarism of China. And if you have a total war against a country like that, there is no possibility for the U.S. to win in that war."

Should the U.S. continue to defend the world's oil routes, or instead play a more humble role?

"What is diplomacy?" responded Governor Ishihara. "Diplomacy is something very flexible and multifaceted. Sometimes you have to use intimidation; sometimes you have to show moderation and humility; and sometimes it even includes appeasing your counterparty. If you do not have those elements in your diplomacy, your diplomacy will end [up] becoming very crude and rough."
 "Now, talking about Iraq, I am not interested in the question of whether there was a weapon of mass destruction in Iraq or not," he emphasized. "When it comes to a leader like Saddam Hussein, of course such a leader has to be eliminated, because he was the person who ordered the use of sarin gas to eliminate tens of thousands of Kurdish people, who are the people of his own country."
 However, "my thought is that there could have been other methods of eliminating him, and there should have been a more accurate investigation about the situation in that country. And there are numerous leaders like Saddam Hussein, and it is difficult to act like a policeman trying to remove each villain like Saddam Hussein in the world."
 "Now the premise to all those questions is the point about oil," the governor continued. "I know this matter is not a subject which can be generalized or discussed in a simple way. But I think there could be various countermeasures."
 "New fuels are being developed," including new forms of oil being developed by Shell; "if those new methods are adopted globally, we may enter into a new phase," a civilization less dependent on the Middle East's energy resources, he suggested.
 "But, then there are various political forces at work. We don't know what kind of reactions the major oil producers may have to the development of alternative fuel sources. They may exercise pressure on governments, and they may influence governments to engage in usual forms of diplomacy. It's very difficult to foresee what kinds of reactions might occur. But one thing is very clear. We are coming to the limit of the civilization that is dependent upon burning fossil fuel," Governor Ishihara concluded.